Because of reasons like wars, religions and political events, political analysts think that 5 countries in Middle East would be 14. Examples are the anti- government protests in Iraq, the civil war in Syria and the uprising in Lybia.
Maybe in 30 years Syria could divide into 3 countries; Alawites, A Syrian Kurdistan and The Sunni Heartland. In Iraq, Kurds could join Syrian Kurds, Sunnis could join Syrian Sunnis and the south could be Shiitestan. Libya could break into its 2 or 3 historical parts. Saudi Arabia could return into its pre-monarchy times. At last Yemen could break into 2 pieces and one of them could be a part of Saudi Arabia, later.
http://www.nvtimes.com/2013/09/29/opinion/sundav/imaqininq-a-remapped-middle-east.html? paqewanted=all& r=1&